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ORRA Housing Report - March 2016

Friday, April 15, 2016  
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Orlando's homebuying season kicks off with
a decline in inventory and an increase in median price

The traditional start to Orlando’s homebuying season — April 1 — finds buyers continuing to grapple with a dwindling inventory that in March pushed home prices up 10 percent and restrained sales by 4 percent.

“Like much of the country, Orlando home sales are being impacted by a lack of inventory rather than a lack of buyers,” says ORRA President John Lazenby, Colony Realty Group, Inc. “For example, there is only 2.16 months’ worth of non-distressed single-family homes in the critical first-time homebuyer price categories. That’s even below the area’s overall 3.50 months-of-supply, which is far below the six months that economists consider balanced between supply and demand.”

Median Price

The overall median price (all sales types and all home types combined) for the month of March 2016 is $195,000, a 10.12 percent jump compared to the $177,075 median price in March 2015. The median price is up 5.41 percent compared to the February 2016 median of $185,000.

The Orlando median home price has now experienced year-over-year increases for the past 56 consecutive months; as of March the median price is 68.83 percent higher than it was in July 2011.

The year-to-year median price of normal sales decreased 0.01 percent, while the median price for foreclosure sales increased 8.11 percent and short sales increased 15.38 percent.

The median price of single-family homes increased 9.74 percent when compared to March of last year, and the median price of condos increased 16.56 percent.

Completed Sales

Members of the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association participated in the sale of 3,022 homes (all home types and all sale types combined) that closed in March 2016, a decrease of 3.51 percent compared to March 2015 and an increase of 25.13 percent compared to February 2016.

Sales of normal homes increased 18.79 percent in March 2016, while foreclosures decreased 53.70 percent and short sales decreased 30.77 percent.

Homes of all types spent an average of 70 days on the market before coming under contract in March 2016, and the average home sold for 97.14 percent of its listing price. In March 2015 those numbers were 80 days and 96.87 percent, respectively.

The average interest rate paid by Orlando homebuyers in March was 3.70 percent. Last month, the average interest rate was 3.75 while this month last year homebuyers paid an average interest rate of 3.78.

Pending Sales

Pending sales – those under contract and awaiting closing – are currently at 5,798. The number of pending sales in March 2016 is 13.63 percent lower than it was in March 2015 and 6.90 percent higher than it was in February 2016.

Normal properties made up 67.56 percent of pending sales in March 2016. Short sales accounted for 17.35 percent, while bank-owned properties accounted for 15.09 percent.

Inventory

The number of existing homes (all types combined) that were available for purchase in March is 8.21 percent below that of March 2015 and now rests at 10,583. Inventory decreased by 1.06 percent (113 homes in number) compared to last month.

The inventory of normal homes increased 4.80 percent, while foreclosures decreased 62.22 percent and short sales decreased 40.92 percent.

The inventory of single-family homes is down by 6.35 percent when compared to March of 2015, while condo inventory is down by 16.31 percent. The inventory of duplexes, townhomes, and villas is down by 8.10 percent.

Affordability

The March affordability index is 165.41 percent, a decrease from February’s index of 173.30. (An affordability index of 99 percent means that buyers earning the state-reported median income are 1 percent short of the income necessary to purchase a median-priced home. Conversely, an affordability index that is over 100 means that median-income earners make more than is necessary to qualify for a median-priced home.)

Buyers who earn the reported median income of $57,038 can qualify to purchase one of 4,391 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $322,548 or less.

First-time homebuyer affordability in March decreased to 117.62 percent from last month’s 123.24 percent. First-time buyers who earn the reported median income of $38,786 can qualify to purchase one of the 2,207 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $191,963 or less.

Condos and Town Homes/Duplexes/Villas

The sales of condos in the Orlando area were down 6.09 percent, with 339 sales recorded in March 2016 compared to 361 in March 2015.

Orlando homebuyers purchased 265 duplexes, town homes, and villas in March 2016, which is 8.62 percent less than in March 2015.

MSA Numbers

Sales of existing homes within the entire Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties) in March (3,675) were down by 4.30 percent when compared to March of 2015 (3,840).

Each individual county’s monthly sales comparisons are as follows:

•    Lake: 8.21 percent below March 2015;
•    Orange: 3.52 percent below March 2015;
•    Osceola: 6.56 percent below March 2015; and
•    Seminole: 0.97 percent below March 2015.

This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association and the My Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service. Neither the association nor MFRMLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the association or MFRMLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Due to late closings, an adjustment is necessary to record those closings posted after our reporting date.

ORRA REALTOR® sales, referred to as the core market, represent all sales by members of the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association, not necessarily those sales strictly in Orange and Seminole counties. Note that statistics released each month may be revised in the future as new data is received.

Orlando MSA numbers reflect sales of homes located in Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and Lake counties by members of any REALTOR® association, not just members of ORRA.


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