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ORRA Housing Report - January 2016

Monday, February 15, 2016  
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Inventory declines drive Orlando home sales down,
squeeze median price upward in January

The median price of Orlando homes sold in January increased nearly 14 percent of January of 2015, amid an inventory level that has seen year-over-year decreases for the last seven months.

The overall median price (all sales types and all home types combined) for the month of January

2016 is $176,500, a 13.87 percent jump compared to the $155,000 median price in January 2015. The median price is down 4.59 percent compared to the December 2015 median of $185,000.The Orlando median home price has now experienced year-over-year increases for the past 54 consecutive months; as of January the median price is 52.81 percent higher than it was in July 2011.

The year-to-year median price of normal sales increased 7.03 percent, while the median price for foreclosure sales increased 4.19 percent and short sales decreased 2.94 percent.

The median price of single-family homes increased 12.73 percent when compared to January of last year, and the median price of condos increased 11.71 percent.

Completed Sales

In addition to squeezing prices upward, Orlando’s current lack of inventory is also having an impact on sales, explains Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association President John Lazenby, Colony Realty Group, Inc.

“We traditionally experience a big drop in sales between December and January after the rush to close for tax purposes,” says Lazenby. “But in addition, right now we just do not have enough supply to satisfy demand. REALTORS® are telling me they have plenty of buyers, and they simply can’t find them homes to buy.”

Members of the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association participated in the sale of 1,745 homes (all home types and all sale types combined) that closed in January 2016, a decrease of 17.69 percent compared to January 2015 and a decrease of 33.88 percent compared to December 2015.

Single-family home sales decreased 15.07 percent in January 2016 compared to January 2015, while condo sales decreased 32.26 percent.

Homes of all types spent an average of 78 days on the market before coming under contract in January 2016, and the average home sold for 96.69 percent of its listing price. In January 2015 those numbers were 82 days and 96.36 percent, respectively.

The average interest rate paid by Orlando homebuyers in January was 3.93 percent. Last month, the average interest rate was 4.02 while this month last year homebuyers paid an average interest rate of 3.67.

Pending Sales

Pending sales – those under contract and awaiting closing – are currently at 4,934. The number of pending sales in January 2016 is 18.23 percent lower than it was in January 2015 and 10.33 percent higher than it was in December 2015.

Normal properties made up 59.89 percent of pending sales in January 2016. Short sales accounted for 20.84 percent, while bank-owned properties accounted for 19.27 percent.

Inventory

The number of existing homes (all types combined) that were available for purchase in January is 7.34 percent below that of January 2015 and now rests at 10,777. Inventory increased in number by 143 properties over last month.

The inventory of normal homes increased 5.72 percent, while foreclosures decreased 50.42 percent and short sales decreased 43.53 percent.

The inventory of single-family homes is down by 6.71 percent when compared to January of 2015, while condo inventory is down by 10.81 percent. The inventory of duplexes, townhomes, and villas is down by 6.52 percent.

Current inventory combined with the current pace of sales created a 6.18-month supply of homes in Orlando for January. There was a 5.49-month supply in January 2015 and a 4.03-month supply last month.

Affordability

The January affordability index is 177.36 percent, a decrease from December’s index of 167.23. (An affordability index of 99 percent means that buyers earning the state-reported median income are 1 percent short of the income necessary to purchase a median-priced home. Conversely, an affordability index that is over 100 means that median-income earners make more than is necessary to qualify for a median-priced home.)

Buyers who earn the reported median income of $56,924 can qualify to purchase one of 4,512 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $313,032 or less.

First-time homebuyer affordability in January increased to 126.12 percent from last month’s 118.92 percent. First-time buyers who earn the reported median income of $38,708 can qualify to purchase one of the 2,368 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service for $189,210 or less.

Condos and Town Homes/Duplexes/Villas

The sales of condos in the Orlando area were down 32.26 percent, with 210 sales recorded in January 2016 compared to 310 in January 2015.

Orlando homebuyers purchased 149 duplexes, town homes, and villas in January 2016, which is 16.29 percent less than in January 2015.

MSA Numbers

Sales of existing homes within the entire Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties) in January (2,537) were down by 0.24 percent when compared to January of 2015 (2,543).

Each individual county’s monthly sales comparisons are as follows:

• Lake: 9.57 percent above January 2014;
• Orange: 6.02 percent below January 2015;
• Osceola: 5.26 percent above January 2015; and
• Seminole: 3.58 percent above January 2015.

This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association and the My Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service. Neither the association nor MFRMLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the association or MFRMLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Due to late closings, an adjustment is necessary to record those closings posted after our reporting date.

ORRA REALTOR® sales, referred to as the core market, represent all sales by members of the Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association, not necessarily those sales strictly in Orange and Seminole counties. Note that statistics released each month may be revised in the future as new data is received.

Orlando MSA numbers reflect sales of homes located in Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and Lake counties by members of any REALTOR® association, not just members of ORRA.


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